New Delhi: India has sounded a serious warning about the growing risks facing the global food system, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar cautioning that the world could face a major food crisis in the coming months. His remarks come at a time when geopolitical conflicts, disruptions to grain shipments, fertilizer shortages, energy pressures and climate risks are converging to put unprecedented stress on global supply chains.
Speaking at an international event, Jaishankar highlighted the interconnected nature of the present global crisis. According to him, the problem is not limited to food alone. Energy, fertilisers, finance and food are increasingly becoming part of one larger crisis, with developing countries particularly vulnerable to the consequences.
Why India Is Raising the Alarm
The warning comes against the backdrop of continuing conflicts in Ukraine and the Iran-Gulf region. These conflicts are affecting important transportation routes, energy markets and agricultural supply chains.
Jaishankar pointed out that some major grain-exporting countries could face difficulties sending shipments, particularly through the Black Sea region. Any prolonged disruption to this route could have consequences well beyond the countries directly involved because international food markets depend heavily on a relatively small number of major agricultural exporters.
The issue becomes more serious when grain supply problems are combined with shortages of fertilisers. Modern agriculture depends heavily on fertilisers to maintain crop yields. If farmers are unable to obtain sufficient fertiliser at affordable prices, agricultural production can decline in subsequent growing seasons.
This creates a dangerous cycle: higher energy costs can increase fertiliser prices, higher fertiliser prices can raise farming costs, and lower agricultural production can push food prices higher.
The Fertiliser Problem Could Be the Biggest Concern
One of the central points in Jaishankar’s warning is the emerging shortage of fertilisers.
Fertiliser production and transportation are closely connected to energy supplies and geopolitics. Russia and countries in West Asia are important players in global fertiliser markets, meaning that conflict or disruption in these regions can quickly affect availability and prices elsewhere.
For developing economies, this can become particularly difficult. Farmers may reduce fertiliser usage because of high prices, potentially resulting in lower crop yields. Governments then face the difficult choice of either subsidising agricultural inputs, allowing food prices to rise, or increasing imports.
The consequences can extend beyond agriculture. Higher food prices can increase inflation, reduce household purchasing power and put pressure on government budgets.
Climate Change Adds Another Layer of Risk
Geopolitical instability is not the only issue.
Jaishankar also referred to the possibility of a strong El Niño, a climate phenomenon capable of changing rainfall patterns across different parts of the world. A strong El Niño can create drought conditions in some agricultural regions while causing excessive rainfall elsewhere.
That matters because agricultural production depends heavily on predictable weather.
Countries across Asia, Australia and other major agricultural regions could experience changes in rainfall and crop conditions. Rice, wheat, sugar and other commodities could potentially be affected depending on the intensity and geographical impact of the weather pattern.
The combination of climate risk and geopolitical disruption is particularly concerning because the two problems can reinforce each other.
If global grain supplies are already under pressure and a major agricultural region simultaneously experiences poor weather, international markets could face another shock.
The ‘4F’ Crisis
Jaishankar’s broader argument can be understood through four interconnected areas: Food, Fuel, Fertiliser and Finance.
Food supplies can be disrupted by war and climate events.
Fuel prices can rise because of instability in major energy-producing regions.
Fertiliser production can be affected by shortages of gas, energy and raw materials.
Finance can become more difficult for developing countries because global investors often move money toward perceived safe-haven markets during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
The four pressures together can create a much bigger problem than any individual crisis.
For example, a developing country could simultaneously face higher oil-import costs, more expensive fertiliser, higher food prices and reduced access to international financing.
That could place enormous pressure on governments and ordinary households.
Why Developing Countries Are More Vulnerable
The Global South could be particularly exposed.
Many developing economies depend on imports for energy, fertilisers or essential food commodities. When international prices rise sharply, governments have limited ability to absorb the additional cost indefinitely.
Higher food prices can also have social and political consequences.
Food is one of the most politically sensitive commodities in any country. When the cost of basic necessities rises significantly, public dissatisfaction can increase rapidly.
Jaishankar’s warning therefore highlights that the consequences of current conflicts should not be viewed only through the lens of military or diplomatic confrontation. The economic effects can spread across continents and eventually affect people who are thousands of kilometres away from the battlefield.
India’s Position
Although Jaishankar’s warning was global, India has its own reasons to closely monitor the situation.
India is one of the world’s major agricultural producers and maintains significant foodgrain reserves. That gives the country a degree of protection against international grain-market disruptions.
However, India is not completely insulated from global developments.
Energy prices, fertiliser availability, edible-oil imports and international commodity prices can all affect the Indian economy. A prolonged global disruption could increase production and transportation costs even if domestic foodgrain stocks remain comfortable.
India must therefore balance food security with energy security and agricultural input availability.
A Warning Against ‘Every Country for Itself’
Jaishankar’s message also highlights the dangers of countries making decisions solely according to their own immediate interests without considering the consequences for others.
Global interdependence cannot simply be ignored.
If major countries restrict exports, prioritise domestic requirements or use critical commodities as geopolitical tools, weaker economies can be pushed into severe difficulties.
Countries therefore need to consider the wider consequences of their decisions, particularly when basic necessities such as food and energy are involved.
What Happens Next?
The coming months could become an important test for the global food system.
Governments will need to monitor grain inventories, fertiliser supplies, shipping routes, energy prices and weather developments simultaneously.
International cooperation could become increasingly important. Diversifying supply chains, increasing domestic agricultural production, improving food storage and reducing excessive dependence on individual suppliers could help countries withstand future shocks.
For consumers, the immediate concern is the possibility of higher food and energy prices. For governments, the challenge is considerably larger: maintaining economic stability while protecting food security and supporting vulnerable populations.
Jaishankar’s warning should therefore not be interpreted as a prediction that the world will literally run out of food overnight. Rather, it is a warning about the possibility of serious shortages, higher prices and growing food insecurity if multiple disruptions occur at the same time.
The message from India is clear: the world’s food system is increasingly connected to geopolitics, energy markets, fertiliser production and climate conditions. If those systems are disrupted simultaneously, the consequences could reach far beyond today’s battlefields.
The question now is whether the world will act before a supply shock becomes a full-blown food crisis.
